How Climate Change is Disrupting Roads, Rails, and Air Travel

Transportation networks form the backbone of modern society, moving people and goods across vast distances every day. But these critical systems-roads, railways, ports, and airports-face growing threats from a changing climate. Rising temperatures, intensifying storms, and shifting weather patterns are already straining infrastructure that was designed for historical conditions, not for the extremes we’re witnessing today. Understanding how climate change disrupts our transportation systems is essential for building resilience and maintaining the mobility our communities depend on.

Roads and railways under stress
Heat impacts on pavement and rail tracks
Flooding and extreme precipitation
Coastal flooding and sea-level rise
Hurricane Sandy: A case study in coastal vulnerability
Building resilience for future storms
Arctic opportunities and challenges
Opening shipping routes
Ice roads and permafrost decline
Impacts on remote communities
The economic stakes
Moving forward

Roads and railways under stress

The infrastructure we rely on for daily travel is experiencing unprecedented pressure from climate-related impacts. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, higher temperatures can cause pavement to soften and expand, creating rutting and potholes, particularly in high-traffic areas. This damage places stress on bridge joints and accelerates the deterioration of road surfaces that were built to withstand very different climate conditions.

Heat impacts on pavement and rail tracks

When ambient temperatures reach around 38°C (100°F), asphalt surface temperatures can exceed 60°C (140°F). At these temperatures, the bitumen in asphalt begins to soften, making the road surface sticky and pliable. This leads to rutting-depressions forming in wheel paths-and increases the risk of accidents as vehicles lose traction on softened surfaces.

Roads have buckled across multiple U.S. states during recent heat waves, including Wisconsin, Missouri, and Delaware. The Wisconsin Department of Transportation reported more than 50 pavement buckles across the state during one summer heat wave alone. When concrete roads heat up without adequate expansion joints, they can buckle dramatically, sometimes launching vehicles into the air.

Rail infrastructure faces similar challenges. The Federal Highway Administration notes that increased temperatures can trigger substantial structural failures, including buckling due to excessive expansion. When rail tracks expand in extreme heat, the resulting pressure and tension can cause them to warp and bend out of alignment. This has forced transit agencies like Amtrak to implement speed restrictions during heat waves to prevent derailments, causing significant delays for hundreds of thousands of daily commuters.

Flooding and extreme precipitation

Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent and intense, creating additional challenges for transportation networks. Research published in Nature Communications found that under approximately 2 degrees of warming by mid-century, 43.6% of global transportation assets are expected to experience at least a 25% decrease in the design return period of extreme rainfall-essentially meaning infrastructure will face more severe storms more often than it was designed to handle.

Flooding causes immediate disruptions by closing roads and tunnels, but the long-term effects are equally damaging. Exposure to flooding shortens the life expectancy of highways and roads, as water stress causes structural damage requiring more frequent maintenance, repairs, and rebuilding. The Pew Charitable Trusts reports that climate-related damage to paved roads alone could cost up to $20 billion to repair by the end of the century, with additional billions needed for upgrades to withstand changing conditions.

Coastal flooding and sea-level rise

Coastal transportation infrastructure faces particularly severe risks from rising seas and intensifying storm surges. More than 60,000 miles of U.S. roads and bridges in coastal areas are at risk of flooding and damage from climate-change-related sea level rise. Ports, tunnels, coastal railways, and airports are all vulnerable to both temporary and permanent flooding as sea levels continue to climb.

Hurricane Sandy: A case study in coastal vulnerability

The devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 offers a stark example of what happens when extreme weather meets coastal transportation infrastructure. New York City’s subway system sustained more than $4.5 billion in damage from storm surge that flooded tunnels, rail yards, and stations.

The storm surge, which reached record levels in lower Manhattan, flooded all road tunnels into Manhattan except the Lincoln Tunnel, along with subway tunnels under the East River and the PATH subway system connecting New York and New Jersey. Seven of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s fourteen subway tunnels flooded, with millions of gallons of corrosive saltwater pouring into the system.

The impacts extended far beyond the immediate flooding. The World Bank documented how saltwater damaged or destroyed walls, tracks, switches, signals, controls, power cables, and communication systems throughout the subway network. The South Ferry/Whitehall Street station, which was largely destroyed by the storm, didn’t fully reopen until June 2017-more than four and a half years after Sandy struck.

The economic and social consequences rippled outward. The New York City metro area had to deploy hundreds of shuttle buses to compensate for flooded subway and commuter tunnels. The Long Island Rail Road remained closed until November 8, 2012, and the region’s airports, stock exchanges, and schools all faced extended closures.

Building resilience for future storms

Sandy prompted significant investments in flood protection. The MTA installed flood control covers and deployed removable barriers at vulnerable stations. Floodgates have since been installed in 68 low-lying subway and PATH stations in Lower Manhattan, using a Kevlar-based fabric system that can be rolled out to seal station entrances before storm surges arrive. However, these systems were designed for tidal surge events rather than flash flooding, highlighting the complex nature of climate adaptation.

Road infrastructure in coastal areas is particularly sensitive to more frequent and permanent flooding from sea level rise and storm surges. Major highways in coastal areas often serve as critical evacuation routes, and protecting these routes from flooding and damage is essential for emergency response.

Arctic opportunities and challenges

Climate change is transforming the Arctic in ways that create both new possibilities and serious problems for transportation. The region is warming approximately three times faster than the global average, triggering cascading effects that reach far beyond its boundaries.

Opening shipping routes

As Arctic sea ice retreats, previously impassable waterways are becoming navigable for longer periods each year. Research from Brown University indicates that unless global leaders successfully limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate change will likely open up several new shipping routes through international waters by mid-century.

The Northwest Passage-the maritime route spanning from the Pacific Ocean through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to the North Atlantic-offers a potential 20% reduction in voyage length compared to conventional routes linking Northeast Asia and the North American East Coast via the Panama Canal. As Arctic temperatures rise and sea ice declines, the navigable period for this passage has been steadily lengthening.

The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast has seen increasing traffic, particularly for energy shipments. These emerging routes could significantly reshape global trade patterns, though they also raise environmental concerns about increased emissions in sensitive polar ecosystems. Research published in Nature Communications projects that Arctic Sea Route use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22% to 2.72% of the global total.

Ice roads and permafrost decline

While warming opens maritime routes, it simultaneously threatens land-based transportation in Arctic regions. The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit documents how temporary winter transportation routes-ice roads that traverse frozen lakes, rivers, and tundra-have played an increasingly important role for community supply and industrial development in permafrost zones. However, these routes are becoming less reliable as temperatures rise.

Travel on the Alaskan tundra is now only possible during approximately 100 days per year, compared to over 200 days thirty years ago. This 50% reduction in the operational window has severe implications for oil and gas exploration, timber transport, and community supply chains that depend on frozen ground for access.

Thawing permafrost affects the stability and load-bearing capacity of soils, damaging roads, airport runways, pipelines, and railroads across Alaska. A study examining potential climate damage to Alaskan public infrastructure estimated additional costs of $5.6 to $7.6 billion through 2080, representing 10-12% of total public infrastructure costs in the state. Strong adaptation measures could potentially reduce these costs by about 40%.

Impacts on remote communities

Many rural Alaskan communities depend exclusively on local airstrips for transporting passengers and freight, including essential heating fuel. A significant number of these airstrips are built on permafrost and will require major repairs or complete relocation if their foundations thaw. Combined with coastal erosion threatening entire villages, some Indigenous communities now face the possibility of relocation-an enormous social and economic challenge.

NOAA’s 2025 Arctic Vision and Strategy notes that parts of Alaska are experiencing more than 70 feet of coastal erosion per year, in addition to considerable river erosion. Arctic populations rely on aviation and marine systems more than road systems for transportation and access to goods and services, making them particularly vulnerable to climate-related disruptions.

The economic stakes

The financial implications of climate impacts on transportation are substantial and growing. Transportation contributed about $2.5 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product in 2023, with more than 16 million people employed in transportation or related industries. Climate-related disruptions threaten both this economic contribution and the livelihoods of millions of workers.

State and local governments already spent roughly $180 billion in 2022 on roads and bridges on the U.S. highway system alone-triple the federal government’s infrastructure expenditures. Yet despite these investments, 40% of the nation’s road system was considered in poor or mediocre condition as of recent assessments, with backlogged repair and maintenance costs estimated at $435 billion.

A “business as usual” scenario where emissions continue rising unabated and infrastructure is not adapted to changing climate is projected to cause hundreds of billions of dollars of damage per year by 2090. These costs fall disproportionately on communities that can least afford them-rural areas with fewer transportation options, low-income households, and regions that have historically experienced underinvestment in infrastructure.

Moving forward

Addressing these challenges requires fundamental changes in how we plan, design, build, and maintain transportation infrastructure. California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office notes that transportation infrastructure is typically planned to withstand once-in-a-century weather events, but climate change is making such events more frequent. New infrastructure will have shorter lifespans unless transportation planning increasingly accounts for future climate conditions rather than historical norms.

Engineers are developing heat-resistant materials, including modified bitumen with polymers that enhance thermal stability. Cool pavement technologies using reflective coatings can reduce surface temperatures. For rail systems, modern signaling and communication equipment designed to withstand flooding is being installed in vulnerable areas. Timely repairs when pavement shows early damage can prevent more catastrophic failures-infrastructure health, like human health, benefits from early intervention.

The scale of investment required is enormous, but research suggests it pays off. World Bank estimates indicate that the overall net benefits of investing in resilient infrastructure in developing countries could amount to $4.2 trillion over the lifetime of new infrastructure-a $4 return for every dollar invested in resilience.

What do you think? As climate impacts on transportation intensify, how should communities balance the costs of upgrading infrastructure against the risks of inaction? And in regions where entire transportation networks may need to be relocated or redesigned, who should bear the financial burden of adaptation?

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Table of Contents

Roads and railways under stress 🔗

Heat impacts on pavement and rail tracks 🔗

Flooding and extreme precipitation 🔗

Coastal flooding and sea-level rise 🔗

Hurricane Sandy: A case study in coastal vulnerability 🔗

Building resilience for future storms 🔗

Arctic opportunities and challenges 🔗

Opening shipping routes 🔗

Ice roads and permafrost decline 🔗

Impacts on remote communities 🔗

The economic stakes 🔗

Moving forward 🔗