Climate Refugees: How Climate Change Forces Migration and Transforms Livelihood Patterns

Climate change is reshaping where and how millions of people live across India. From drought-stricken villages in Odisha to disappearing islands in the Sundarbans, environmental degradation is pushing communities to abandon their ancestral homes and traditional livelihoods. These “climate refugees” represent one of the most significant humanitarian challenges of our time, with implications extending far beyond individual displacement to affect urban infrastructure, regional stability, and international relations.

Internal migration driven by drought and desertification 🔗

India’s semi-arid regions are witnessing a steady exodus of agricultural workers as climate conditions deteriorate. The Bolangir district in Western Odisha stands as a stark example of this phenomenon, with tens of thousands of labourers migrating annually due to persistent drought conditions and agricultural failure. These migrants typically travel to urban centres like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore, seeking alternative employment when farming becomes unsustainable.

The situation in Bolangir has deteriorated significantly over recent decades. Rising temperatures, increased frequency of droughts, and erratic rainfall have led to repeated drought-like conditions, forcing people to search for work elsewhere. The district has experienced an average temperature rise of eight degrees Celsius over the past 30 years, contributing to deforestation, water stress, and soil degradation.

The migration pathway 🔗

Climate-induced migration from drought-prone areas rarely happens suddenly. Many farmers attempt multiple adaptation strategies before ultimately deciding to relocate. These include switching to drought-resistant crops, diversifying income sources, and reducing household expenditures. However, when these measures prove insufficient, migration becomes the final adaptation strategy.

What often begins as temporary or seasonal migration-with family members spending part of the year working in urban areas-increasingly transforms into permanent relocation as climate conditions worsen. Research indicates that approximately 49% of Odisha’s area is affected by mild to moderate drought events, making the state one of India’s most disaster-prone regions for both floods and droughts.

The migration process typically follows a predictable pattern. It begins with initial short-term migration by working-age males, followed by longer absences, and eventually the relocation of entire families when environmental conditions make return impossible. Most migrants end up working at brick kilns in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu or at construction sites in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Coastal displacement and sea level rise 🔗

While inland areas struggle with drought, India’s extensive coastline faces different but equally serious climate challenges. Rising sea levels, saltwater intrusion, and increasingly powerful cyclones are transforming coastal ecosystems and threatening communities that have lived in these regions for centuries.

Sea levels along the Indian coast have risen by 8.5 centimetres over the past 50 years, and projections suggest sea levels could rise further by the end of the 21st century. This steady oceanic advance brings several devastating impacts, including contamination of freshwater aquifers and agricultural land through saltwater intrusion, making traditional farming impossible in affected areas.

The Sundarbans crisis 🔗

The Sundarbans delta, home to the world’s largest mangrove forest, represents one of the most climate-vulnerable coastal regions. Lohachara Island became one of the first inhabited islands to disappear under the sea in 1996, forcing residents to relocate to neighbouring islands, often without documents or property deeds. More than 6,000 people once called this island home.

The submergence of Lohachara marked the beginning of what has become a broader pattern of displacement in the region. Over the past 25 years, four islands have already disappeared: Bedford, Lohachara, Kabasgadi, and Suparibhanga. These delta inhabitants are considered India’s first climate refugees.

Ghoramara Island, located about 30 kilometres north of the Bay of Bengal, has seen unprecedented erosion in recent decades. From 26 square kilometres, it has shrunk to around 6.7 square kilometres. The population, once approximately 40,000, now numbers just over 5,000. The first cases of planned relocation from Lohachara and Ghoramara to a nearby island named Sagar started in the late 1970s, forming the earliest examples of environmental migrants in the Sundarbans.

Cyclone impacts and mass displacement 🔗

The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have increased dramatically. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 impacted 60 million people and resulted in significant fatalities in West Bengal. Between 2019 and 2021, four major cyclones-Fani, Amphan, Bulbul, and Yaas-pointed to the increasingly unpredictable weather in the Sundarbans caused by climate change and rising sea levels.

West Bengal recorded the longest stretch of shoreline erosion in India at 63%, with 99 square kilometres of land lost due to coastal erosion between 1990 and 2016. This has a direct effect on marginal residents of the Sundarbans, who typically reside closest to the riverbanks and are often the most vulnerable.

Cross-border climate migration from Bangladesh 🔗

Climate change may induce migration from neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh, which ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. In 2022, 7.1 million Bangladeshis were forcibly displaced by weather-related events, a figure forecast to nearly double by 2050.

One estimate suggests that 90 million Bangladeshis-56% of the population-live in regions classified as high climate exposure areas. Half of them face very high exposure. India, with an estimated 2.5 million Bangladeshi emigrants, is migrants’ most common destination. This flow represents one of the largest single international migration movements, outstripping the number of migrants crossing the Mexican-US border.

Projections and implications 🔗

By 2050, climate change could internally displace as many as 13.3 million people in Bangladesh, making it the primary driver of internal migration in the nation. When domestic options become exhausted, many of these displaced people may seek refuge across international borders.

Large-scale cross-border migration creates complex geopolitical challenges. Unlike internally displaced people, international climate migrants often face legal limbo, as current international refugee frameworks do not explicitly recognise environmental factors as grounds for refugee status. This legal gap leaves climate migrants vulnerable to exploitation and human rights abuses.

For India, managing climate-induced migration from neighbouring countries requires balancing humanitarian considerations with practical concerns about resource allocation, security, and social cohesion. The issue has already created tensions in border states like Assam, where arrivals from Bangladesh have generated resentment among some local communities.

Metropolitan cities under pressure 🔗

Major metropolitan cities in coastal regions like Mumbai and Kolkata face dual pressures from climate change: direct impacts from sea level rise and storms, combined with increased migration from affected rural areas.

Research indicates that Mumbai and Kolkata face the highest flood risks among Indian coastal cities, particularly under high emission scenarios. These urban centres must prepare for climate-induced population shifts while addressing existing resource constraints and infrastructure challenges.

Mumbai’s climate vulnerability 🔗

Rising sea levels endanger nearly 35% of Mumbai’s land area and a quarter of its population. The city, home to over 20 million people, was naturally protected from cyclones and flooding due to its vast mangrove cover, but urbanisation has caused massive depletion of mangroves. Large real estate developments now stand where protective natural barriers once existed.

Densely populated coastal cities like Mumbai are expected to experience climate change impacts most intensely, putting millions at risk. The World Wide Fund for Nature has ranked Kolkata among the 11 key Asian cities most likely to be affected by climate change, alongside Dhaka, Jakarta, and Manila.

Urban infrastructure challenges 🔗

Major cities including Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai are likely to face the most pressure from migration. If current trends continue without major policy changes, displacement could affect 50-60 million people. However, if temperature rise is kept under 2 degrees Celsius, displacement levels could potentially be kept under 5 million.

Approximately 81,000 square kilometres of land fall under India’s Low Elevation Coastal Zone, housing a population of over 60 million. Half of this population lives in urban regions comprising approximately 31 million people. The fishing communities that live on the coast are among the least resilient and capable of facing the situation, as they stand to lose their primary livelihood.

Due to the combined effects of sea level rise and subsidence, the Ganges delta will likely see saltwater intrude 100 kilometres from the coast, greatly impacting groundwater supplies. In Kolkata, overexploitation of groundwater has led to further intrusion of seawater, making subsurface groundwater increasingly saline.

Changing livelihood patterns 🔗

Climate-induced migration fundamentally transforms how displaced communities earn their living. Agricultural workers who migrate to cities typically enter informal labour markets, working in construction, domestic services, or small-scale trading. This transition often involves a complete restructuring of family economies and social relationships.

Women-led households in the Sundarbans have become more common than in any other area in India because of distress migration. These households are often marked by debt burdens, a high number of dependents, a lack of economic power, and limited livelihood options. Since Cyclone Aila in 2009, distress migration driven by economic vulnerability has resulted in men taking up work as informal migrant workers across India.

Agriculture and fisheries-the two principal livelihoods of the Sundarbans’ coastal dwellers-are now under severe threat from saltwater intrusion, soil degradation, and storm damage. Increasing land salinity due to severe cyclonic storms and tidal wave action impedes soil productivity, forcing residents to seek alternative employment opportunities in distant states.

Policy responses and adaptation strategies 🔗

Addressing climate-induced migration requires coordinated action at multiple levels. India’s National Disaster Management Authority developed a draft policy in early 2023 that includes provisions for coastal and river erosion, covering mitigation and resettlement of those displaced. The policy aims to reduce land loss, enhance economic resilience, and minimise vulnerability.

Some communities have demonstrated remarkable resilience through local adaptation initiatives. In Bolangir, community interventions to dig wells and ponds have enabled farmers to fight drought, allowing young family members to remain in agriculture rather than migrate. Forest rejuvenation efforts have begun providing livelihood support in some areas.

However, significant challenges remain. Officials struggle to identify suitable areas for relocation of the most vulnerable residents. Available public land is often unfit for habitation or agriculture, and converting forest land for resettlement would create new environmental problems. Forward-thinking urban planners are beginning to incorporate climate migration projections into long-term development strategies, including climate-resilient infrastructure, flexible housing approaches, and job creation programmes specifically targeted at climate-affected communities.

What do you think? As climate conditions continue to deteriorate in vulnerable regions, how should governments balance the immediate needs of displaced populations with longer-term adaptation strategies? What role should urban planning play in preparing cities to receive climate migrants while addressing their own climate vulnerabilities?

References

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