Climate Refugees in India: Vulnerability, Displacement, and Extreme Weather Events

India stands at the frontlines of a growing climate crisis. With over 7,500 kilometres of coastline, vast agricultural plains dependent on monsoon rains, and millions living in flood-prone river deltas, the country faces mounting pressure from extreme weather events. From devastating floods in Kerala to cyclones battering the Bay of Bengal coast, climate-induced displacement has become a harsh reality for millions of Indians. Understanding this vulnerability is essential as the nation grapples with protecting its most exposed communities.

Coastal vulnerabilities threatening India’s major cities 🔗

Research examining sea level rise impacts reveals that coastal cities including Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai face the highest flood risks, particularly under high emission scenarios. These metropolitan areas sit at elevated baseline sea levels, making their risk response escalate significantly as climate conditions worsen.

The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has projected that relative mean sea levels could increase substantially across India’s coastal cities by 2100. Bhavnagar in Gujarat faces an increase of up to 87 cm, while Vishakhapatnam could see a 62 cm rise. These projections spell disaster for low-lying urban areas where millions reside and work.

Kolkata carries a particularly high overall vulnerability score, rated 7 out of 10. The city’s exposure to sea level rise is rated at a dangerous 8, while its flooding and drought risk stands at 7. Situated on the banks of the Hooghly River within the Ganges delta, Kolkata is only metres above current sea levels. The city expanded by reclaiming surrounding wetlands, leaving it sitting on alluvial deposits within a considerable seismic zone.

Gujarat’s storm surge risks 🔗

Cities along Gujarat’s coastline face significant storm surge risks. Bhavnagar, Surat, and Vadodara are particularly vulnerable to intensifying cyclonic activity combined with rising sea levels. The warming of the Indian Ocean is making cyclones increasingly stronger, bringing more moisture and heat to coastal regions.

Mumbai is experiencing land subsidence at approximately 2 mm per year, according to studies. Combined with gradual sea level rise, this double threat could submerge the city in coming decades. The average elevation of Mumbai is around 10 metres, and like Kolkata and Chennai, it lies within India’s Low Elevation Coastal Zone, where elevations range from just 2 to 10 metres.

Drought and water scarcity across Indian states 🔗

While coastal regions battle rising seas, India’s interior faces a different but equally devastating challenge. Failure of monsoons causes severe water shortages across major drought-prone regions including southeastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Telangana, and Rajasthan. Only about 35% of India’s total agricultural land is irrigated, leaving two-thirds of cultivated land entirely dependent on rainfall.

Western Rajasthan has experienced measurable changes in climate variability over recent decades. The region’s average annual rainfall decreased by 50 mm over a 35-year period, dropping from 400 mm to approximately 350 mm. Temperature variability has also increased, with an average rise of about 0.5°C during June months. The scarcity of water resources combined with this variability creates severe water stress conditions responsible for recurring droughts.

Rivers facing critical water scarcity 🔗

The Central Water Commission has identified 99 districts across 14 states as drought-prone. Most of these areas concentrate in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. The spatial availability of water resources varies dramatically across India, from over 18,417 cubic metres in the Brahmaputra valley to as low as 180 cubic metres in the Sabarmati basin.

The groundwater situation is particularly alarming. In states like Rajasthan and Gujarat, arid climate conditions lead to water-stressed conditions, while in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, poor aquifer properties compound the scarcity problem. The groundwater table in some affected areas has fallen below 300 metres, and drought has become a yearly phenomenon in these regions.

Major displacement events in recent Indian history 🔗

India has witnessed several catastrophic climate events that displaced massive populations. These disasters illustrate the scale of vulnerability facing Indian communities.

The 2005 Mumbai floods 🔗

Mumbai experienced its worst flooding in recorded history on July 26, 2005, when the city received 942 mm of rainfall in a single day. The deluge killed more than 1,000 people and destroyed approximately 14,000 homes, demonstrating how quickly extreme rainfall can overwhelm urban infrastructure.

The 2013 Uttarakhand floods 🔗

The June 2013 disaster in Uttarakhand brought more than 340 mm of rainfall, triggering catastrophic floods and landslides. This event claimed more than 6,000 lives and caused economic losses exceeding 3.8 billion USD. The disaster remains one of India’s deadliest natural calamities since the 2004 tsunami.

The 2015 Chennai floods 🔗

Chennai received three times its usual rainfall during the November 2015 floods. This event resulted in over 500 deaths and displaced approximately 1.8 million people. Estimated damages reached 3 billion USD, highlighting the economic devastation that accompanies such disasters.

The 2018 Kerala floods 🔗

The 2018 Kerala floods killed over 483 people and forced approximately one million people to evacuate. The disaster was Kerala’s worst flooding in nearly a century, directly affecting all 14 districts of the state. The flooding resulted from extended heavy rainfall combined with a monsoon depression, demonstrating how multiple climate factors can compound into catastrophic events.

The Sundarbans: India’s disappearing delta 🔗

The Sundarbans represents one of the most climate-vulnerable regions on the Indian subcontinent. This unique mangrove ecosystem, home to the Bengal Tiger and supporting over 4.5 million people, faces existential threats from rising seas.

The average yearly sea level rise along the Sundarbans delta is much higher at 8 millimetres compared to the global average of 3 millimetres annually. The Indian portion of the Sundarbans and its delta are also sinking at a rate of 2 to 4 millimetres per year due to subsidence. Climate change and sea level rise, combined with other factors, led to land erosion of 170 square kilometres between 1973 and 2010 along the Sundarbans coastline.

Lohachara became one of the first inhabited islands to disappear under the sea in 1996, forcing residents to relocate to neighbouring islands, often without documents or property deeds. The first planned relocation from Lohachara and Ghoramara to nearby Sagar island began in the late 1970s, creating India’s first environmental migrants in this region. However, evidence now suggests that Sagar itself faces disappearance, as sea rise there is occurring at 12 millimetres per year.

By 2050, an estimated 1 million people will need to relocate from more vulnerable locations of the Indian Sundarbans, requiring managed relocation on a much larger scale than anything attempted before.

Monsoon shifts and their impact on agriculture 🔗

India’s agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to monsoon variability. The Indian subcontinent receives about 78% of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September. Interannual variations in this rainfall, though only about 9% of the mean, carry significant socio-economic impacts on agriculture, water availability, and the country’s GDP.

The changing nature of the monsoon has serious consequences for farming. Long dry spells are becoming more frequent while short wet spells are growing more intense. Nearly half of the season’s rainfall now falls within just 20 to 30 hours, covering only about 20% of the monsoon period. This uneven distribution affects water availability, soil health, and crop productivity.

The El Niño factor 🔗

El Niño generally weakens the Indian monsoon, resulting in reduced rainfall and increased drought risk. Since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, with seven experiencing below-normal monsoon rainfall. States like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh face deficit rainfall with probabilities of 82% and 89% respectively during El Niño events.

El Niño years are often associated with record-breaking temperatures. States like Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Gujarat experience prolonged heatwaves during these periods. Severe droughts were observed in 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2015, all of which coincided with El Niño conditions. Since over 50% of India’s cultivated land is rain-fed, any disruption in monsoon patterns directly affects crop yields of rice, pulses, maize, and oilseeds.

The relationship works both ways. El Niño-induced deficit rainfall reduces summer crop production, leading to higher inflation rates and lower GDP given agriculture’s significant contribution to the Indian economy. Late onset and early retrieval of monsoons cause drought and crop failures, creating a cascade of economic hardship for farming communities.

The scale of climate displacement in India 🔗

In 2020, approximately 14 million people in India migrated as a consequence of extreme weather events. Projections suggest climate change could forcibly displace 45 million people in India by 2050. Between 2008 and 2019, an estimated 3.6 million people were displaced annually due to cyclones, floods, and storms within the country.

A record 32.6 million internal displacements were associated with disasters globally in 2022, exceeding the 28.3 million displaced by conflict and violence that same year. Four of the top five countries with the highest number of new internal displacements due to disasters were in Asia, with South Asia likely to have the most people displaced by climate change due to population density and vulnerability.

Legal gaps in protection 🔗

India’s existing legal framework is ill-equipped to handle climate migration. The country does not have a specific legal category for climate migrants, and its approach to migration and displacement is governed by outdated laws such as the 1946 Foreigners Act and the 1955 Citizenship Act. These laws do not differentiate between various types of migrants, leaving climate migrants without recognition or protection.

In the Sundarbans, rising seas and frequent cyclones including Amphan in 2020 and Yaas in 2021 have led to large-scale migration from West Bengal to Kolkata’s slums. Rather than temporary evacuations, these are permanent displacements. Yet these people are often treated as informal labourers, squatters, or even illegal encroachers, lacking access to legal status, social welfare, or acknowledgment of their displacement.

Building resilience for the future 🔗

India’s response to climate displacement requires urgent policy development and infrastructure investment. The Odisha government’s response to the 1999 super cyclone offers one model, having successfully relocated 571 families from Satabhaya to Bagapatia under the Satabhaya Resettlement and Rehabilitation Yojana, providing new homes, agricultural land, and facilities. This effort marked the relocation of India’s first officially recognised climate refugees.

Cities are beginning to adapt. Mumbai has undertaken projects like the Coastal Road combining sustainable coastal protection with urban planning. Kochi is enhancing flood resilience through barriers, building elevation, and improved drainage systems. Chennai is investing in green infrastructure and stormwater management to combat rising sea levels.

The number of countries projected to face extreme climate-related hazards is expected to rise from 3 to 65, including India. Over the past decade, weather-related disasters have caused 220 million internal displacements globally, averaging approximately 60,000 displacements per day. These numbers underscore the urgency of comprehensive climate adaptation strategies.

What do you think? As climate change continues to reshape India’s landscape, how can communities and governments better prepare for inevitable displacement? What role should local knowledge and community-led initiatives play in building resilience against extreme weather events?

References

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